Wrigley World Series?

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There’s a lot to like about the 2008 Chicago Cubs. Sweet Lou’s club has depth in the rotation, studs in the bullpen and a powerful lineup.

Toss in a Japanese superstar plus, some luck on the north side and the Cubbies may have its best shot at a World Series title in 100 years.

Starting Rotation

Few NL teams have the quality pitching depth of the Cubs (Ariz, S.F. NYM). However, I don’t expect the Cubs will leave Arizona with a surplus of arms.

With Chicago still searching for more speed at the top of the lineup and a solid utility player, it’s likely the Cubs will trade some of its extra arms by the end of spring training.

Here’s my guess at what the Cubs rotation will look like on Opening Day.

Theodore Roosevelt Lilly was 9-1 after a Cubs loss in 2007

2007 Notes

1) Carlos Zambrano: (18-13) 34 starts with 216.3 IP

2) Ted Lilly: (15-8) 207 IP and was 9-1 after a Cubs loss

3) Rich Hill: (11-8) He’s capable of 15 wins this season

4) Ryan Dempster: Back in the rotation for the first time since ‘03 (3-7)

5) Jon Lieber: (3-6) Started only 12 games for Philly in ’07 due to injury

*6) Odd men out: Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher.

The most notable odd man out is Jason Marquis (12-9). Jason was solid in his first year in Chicago (33 starts, 191 IP), but he lost some stamina late in the season.

Reportedly, the tough Brooklyn native has committed to a stringent off-season work out plan after being left off the Cardinals 2006 playoff roster and physically fading down the stretch with the Cubs last year.

Obviously, it’s not certain that Marquis will be the sixth starter but, his stock will be the highest when it comes to trade options for Chicago. Personally, I think it would serve the Cubs best if they retained Marquis.

Despite Marquis’ low endurance after August, he’s still won 54 games over the last four seasons (Dontrelle Willis also has 54 wins in the same time span). And, during this same time frame Jason has average 32 starts, 190 innings pitched and 12 wins per season. Not bad.

Not to mention, the guy seems to be a good luck charm too. Marquis’ team has made the playoffs in all eight of his major league seasons.

Besides the fact that I think a return to Wrigley will rejuvenate Jon Lieber’s career, I’m definitely worried about the durability of the 38-year-old.

Sean Gallagher is a projected MLB starter for the Cubs

On the other hand, I have no qualms in the Cubs dealing either Marshall or Gallagher. However, neither pitcher alone will bring back much in a trade so, don’t be surprised if they’re dealt as a packaged deal.

Gallagher is probably the more coveted hurler. He’s a year younger than the 22-year-old Marshall and is ranked as Chicago’s fifth best prospect by Baseball America (10-3, 3.10 ERA in 19 minor league starts last season).

Although, with Gallagher short on MLB experience - made his MLB debut last season (June 9) - and with left handed pitching a luxury, Sean Marshall will be equally enticing as Gallagher for many teams.

Bullpen

This is one of the Cubs’ key strengths. From long relievers (LR) to middle relievers (MR) the Cubs have plenty of good options. On the other hand, with former closer Ryan Dempster moving to the rotation, Sweet Lou must decide on a new closer by the end of spring training.

While Cubs Nation often fretted over Dempster’s life on the edge style, the red head was a reliable 28-of-31 in save opportunities last year. Obviously, the club will need a similar success rate of closing the door to compete for another division title.

Ryan averaged 28 saves over three seasons as the Cubs’ closer

One candidate for the closing role is the brilliant Carlos Marmol. The 24-year-old was arguable the Cubs’ MVP last year (5-1, 1.43 ERA), as the right hander allowed a measly 3 HR and 35 walks over 70 relief innings.

And, while it seems he would be the perfect fit to close, it makes more sense for Marmol to set someone else up for the ninth, that person being Kerry Wood (1-1, 22 games).

The 30-year-old Wood is a better fit to close because he has the right mentality, experience and stuff to seal a win. However, there’s always the lingering question of durability with the former 1998 Rookie of the Year. In fact, this spring Wood is already dealing with some back issues.

Although, should Wood win the closers role this spring, I don’t expect Lou to continue handling Kerry with kid gloves.

Long relief is the biggest weakness on an otherwise strong relief crew. I expect Angel Guzman and Tim Lahey to fill this void.

The likely candidates for middle relief are Michael Wurtz, Scott Eyre, Neal Cotts and Jose Ascanio (acquired from Atlanta for Will Ohman in December).

Much attention will be paid this spring to the development of Ascanio, a right-handed flame thrower. And, the long term plan may call for this 22 year-old to become the next everyday closer on the north side.

However, none of the LR or MR pitchers are dominate throwers outside of Ascanio but, they don’t have to be considering Bob Howry, Marmol and Wood are all behind them.

Carlos Marmol is a candidate to close for Chicago in 2008

Speaking of which, Howry and Marmol are both capable of pitching multiply innings if need be and could occasionally close if Wood needs the rest too.

All in all, in a very average NL Central this staff should fair very well against its division rivals and the rest of the NL

Lineup

The Cubs will have no problem scoring runs again this year (averaged 4.6 runs per game in 2007). The lineup has power hitters, clutch hitters and situational hitters.

Soriano is the Cubs’ leadoff man for now (.299, 33HR, 70 RBIs in 2007)

However, after Piniella used 125 different lineups in 2007 there’s still no telling how set the Cubs will remain from 1-9 this year either.

Mainly, there’s still the question of whether Alfonso Soriano should drop from the leadoff spot down to the 3-4-or 5-hole.

Soriano has made it clear that he prefers leading off. However, there’s a case to be made that Alfonso’s unconventional lead-off style is better suited further down in the order.

Always ready to swing at the first strike, Soriano is rarely patient leading off and more often than not is a streak hitter as well.

Plus, after suffering through multiply leg injuries in 2007 his base running ability is also a concern. Only a handful of true leadoff hitters even exist in MLB and, until the Cubs acquire one I’ll expect more leadoff HRs from Soriano.

On the same note, for months its been reported that the Cubs are interested in the Orioles speedy 2B Brian Roberts (50 steals in 2007).

Should the Cubs swing a deal for Roberts (see Marquis/Gallagher/Marshall) Lou would almost certainly place this crafty leadoff man in the top spot.

While Soriano may not be happy about such a move, at least his legs would be better rested outside the leadoff role.

Roberts admitted to steroid use after being named in the Mitchell Report

Secondly, where will Kosuke Fukudome bat? While the Japanese star has transitioned well thus far into spring training it’s still up in the air as to where he’ll fit best in the order.

The left-handed hitting Fukudome is best known as a power hitter but, it should be noted that Japanese baseball fields are typically shorter in the power alleys and down the lines compared to parks in the US.

Still, other Japanese players such as Ichiro and Hideki Matsui have played at an All-Star level in the Major Leagues. And, that alone will place some extra pressure on Fukudome.

Santo will feel some pressure too!

Piniella’s initial thought for Fukudome was to bat him third in the lineup behind Soriano and Ryan Theriot and in front of Derek Lee. Although, lately Piniella has expressed this lineup is “just food for thought.”

On the other hand, Fukudome doesn’t seem to concerned where he’ll bat, just as long as he’s in the lineup. “If Lou puts me there (No. 3), I’ll try to do whatever job I’m supposed to do,” Fukudome said through a translator.

Most importantly, the Cubs need third baseman Aramis Ramirez to stay healthy. Despite playing in only132 games in ‘07, no Cub was more clutch at the plate than big No.16.

That’s why it’s crucial to have Ramirez available for 145-150 games this season. And, besides a short bench, Ramirez’s good defense at the hot corner is essential to the Cubs success as well.

The Cubs need Pie to be an everyday player in CF

Lastly, the Cubs need an everyday center fielder. And, it’s now or never for long time prospect Felix Pie. After nailing AAA pitching at a .362 clip, it seemed Pie was ready for “The Show” last year. However, Pie never found his comfort zone at the dish while struggling through a .215 average in 177 at bats.

Long shot Sam Fuld is in the mix but, it’s more likely Pie’s turf to lose before Fuld can actually win the CF position.

Ideally, the Cubs would like to entertain a trade for Red Soxs CF Coco Crisp. With the younger Jacoby Ellsbury leading the position battle in Boston, Crisp is looking for a starting roll somewhere else.

And, why not the Cubs for Coco? Crisp is a strong, 27-year-old, switch hitting, leadoff man who’s above average defensively in CF and makes less than $4 million dollars. Or, better said, exactly what Chicago is looking for in its outfield. Of course, Chicago will have to give up a lot in return to pull of such a deal for Crisp.

Order

1- LF Soriano (R) Leadoff man until the Cubs acquire Brian Roberts

2- SS Theriot (R) Wore down late in the 2007 season

3- RF Fukudome (L) Managed two 30 HR seasons in Japan

4- 1B Lee (R) Sixteen of his 22 HRs came after the All-Star break

5- 3B Ramirez (R) Agreed to drop down in the order for Fukudome

6- 2B DeRosa (R) Will again serve as an everyday utility player

7- C Soto (R) Only 30 games of MLB experience

8- CF Pie (L) Recently sat out spring games because of a twisted testicle

9-) P Silver Slugger Award winners Carlos Zambrano (2006) and Jason Marquis (2005) are both serviceable pinch-hitters too.

Bench

UT Sam Fuld (L)

C Henry Blanco (R)

2B Mike Fontenot (L)

SS Ronny Cedeno (R)

OF Matt Murton (R)

SS/2B Alex Cintron (R)

PH/1B Darly Ward (L)

It’s World Series or bust for the 2008 season!

While the Cubs look good on paper and remain the popular favorite to win the NL Central, I think it’s far from a sure lock. First of all, Chicago has a whopping 33 home games through the first two months of the season.

And, while this lineup is very power hitting friendly, the usual late winter weather in Wrigleyville may pose a serious threat to the team’s power numbers.

This also leaves a tough road schedule in September against Dusty Baker’s new-look Reds and the equally energetic Milwaukee Brewers and hated New York Mets.

Also, consider the inter-league schedule has the Cubs facing the dominate AL East. Certainly, Boston and New York will pose a serious challenge as will the loaded Toronto Blue Jays and re-tooled Bay Rays.

So, while expectations are sky high for the Cubs in 2008, I highly doubt they’ll run away with the NL pennant. That being said, there’s enough talent in Chicago to win now and represent the NL in the World Series, all curses aside.

Notes

HoHoKam Park in Mesa, Ariz. has been the Cubs’ spring home for 12 straight years

In fact, the Cubs have played in Mesa Ariz. for 30 straight years, the longest in the Cactus League. The longest such streak in the majors is held by Detroit, who’s called Lakeland, Fla. home for 63 straight years.

On the other hand, say farewell to Dogertown.

If the Cubs return to the postseason in 2008 it will mark the team’s first back-to-back October campaigns since 1906-08.

Lou kicks like Chuck Norris

Lou Piniella’s 1,604 victories ranks him fourth in wins among active managers behind Tony LaRussa, Bobby Cox and Joe Torre.

1) LaRussa 2,375

2) Cox 2,255

3) Torre 2,067

4) Piniella 1,604

After beginning the 2007 campaign with a 2-12 record in one-run games, the Cubs rebounded for a 23-22 record by season’s end.

The Cubs enter the 2008 season with just four new players on its 40-man roster from last year. The four include newcomers via free-agency Kosuke Fukudome and Jon Lieber plus, Jose Ascanio and Tim Lahey via trade.

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Tags: Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs, Chuck Norris, Cubbies, Jason Marquis, Kerry Wood, Kosuke Fukudome, Lilly, Lou Piniella, Marmol, Marshall, Mesa Arizona, Santo, Theriot, Wrigley Field, Zambrano