The Cubs’ 0.4% Chance

According to, Chicago is on pace for a (75-87) record.

In addition, the Cubs’ current record of (18-23) grades out with a 0.4% chance of winning the division and 0.6% chance of making the playoffs as the Wild Card.

If it takes roughly 90 wins to take the division…the Cubs would need to finish the remaining 121 games going (72-49).

That’s playing (.595) baseball…and assumes neither the Reds, Cardinals or Brewers reach the 90-win plateau, which is also unlikely.

Not exactly the confidence builder we’re looking for is it?

That said, the Cubs 7-5 win at Florida Wednesday night was far from meaningless.

It quickly put Tuesday’s awful performance in the rear view mirror and gives Chicago a new starting point from which to build on.

The stark truth, however, is Chicago has a big hole to climb out of in the Central standings.

Overcoming a six-game deficit to Cincinnati is possible, but the Cubs have yet to show any indication they’re capable of stringing together a few wins.

In fact, the Cubs have yet to win three games in a row.

Even if this bleak reality has yet to set in…please do me the favor of refraining from crying out ‘it’s still early.’

Spring training games are early–not April and May baseball.

And right now, the only thing early about the 2011 season is the rapid approach of the Cubs’ post season exit.


Leave a comment

Filed under Cubs Blog