Cubs’ Judgment Day

The good news is the Cubs survived the day of rapture, predicted by some to have happened this past Saturday.

In the baseball world, however, Judgment Day happens to be on June 1st, serving as the great predictor of which teams are likely to make the postseason.

Take last year, for example, where seven of the eight playoff teams were either in first or second place in its division come the first of June.

In fact, other than Philly trailing the eventual NL Wild Card winning Braves by 1.5 games, the only significant change in the standings came from the eventual World Series winner, San Francisco.

The Giants, 27-24 at the time, recovered 3.5 games in the NL West to capture the division flag on the season’s final day, knocking out San Diego, who lead the division on June 1st.

Meanwhile, the American League had only the slightest of change with Tampa Bay and New York flip flopping positions atop the AL East–the Yankees led Tampa by one percentage point (.543 to .542) on June 1st.

Now fast forward to 2011 and it seems highly unlikely Chicago has any shot at playing into mid October.

The Cubs, 20-25, sit seven games back of St. Louis, six games back of the NL Wild Card leading Marlins…and five games back of the second place Reds in the NL Central.

So unless Chicago plays exceptional baseball on the upcoming 9-game homestand, to begin this evening against New York, followed by Pittsburgh & Houston, it seems our Cubbies are destined for rebuilding-mode in the season’s second half.

Congratulations, I guess, if you predicted that on April 1st.

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